China official PMIs February: Manufacturing 35.7 (expected 45.0) Non-manufacturing 29.6 (expected 51.0)

29 Feb 2020
China's economy was hit hard right from the Lunar New Year holiday and the weeks after from the coronavirus outbreak. 
- deaths now number >3,000 in China 
Manufacturing 35.7, this is the lowest ever recorded for this indicator. 
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ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: Powell issues surprise statement

28 Feb 2020
Forex news for North American trade on Feb 28, 2020:
Markets:
- Gold -$59 to $1585
- WTI crude down $1.83 to $45.26
- US 10 year yields down 11 bps to 1.15%
There are no easy answers in a tick-by-tick play-by-play at a time like this. Fear and greed dominate. The surprise news of the day was a statement
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US stock futures continue to rally after the close

28 Feb 2020
Futures finish 1.2% higher
The rally that started in the final 15 minutes of trading continued into the after-hours and futures are up 1.2% on the day. That's nearly +5% from the intraday low.
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CFTC Commitments of Traders: Euro shorts continue to grow, yen shorts jump

28 Feb 2020
Forex futures positioning data for the week ending February 25, 2020:
I think this is a clue as to why the pound was so weak late in the week. Everyone is heading to the sidelines to get a clear look at the virus and that meant closing out long GBP and short EUR positions; along with
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US stocks catch a big bid in the final 15-minutes of trading to limit the damage

28 Feb 2020
Dramatic move late
The S&P 500 finished the day down just 24 points at 2954 in a big win for the bulls late in the day.
The index gained more than 70 points in the final 15 minutes of trading in a huge bid, that was likely helped by month-end rebalancing. The huge rallies in bond
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Cable jumps on the Powell put, USD/JPY continues to fall

28 Feb 2020
It's a put on the dollar
Fed cuts don't matter for the stock market anymore. It's a biological crisis, not an economic one. Rates at zero will be great when officials finally get on top of the virus and the tide turns, but they're not a reason to buy right now.
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US 5-year yields are threatening the 2016 low

28 Feb 2020
5-year yields in focus
It's tough to overstate how dramatic the moves in bonds have been this weekend. US Treasury yields continue to crater.
I think they're a clearer sign of where the market thinks the Fed is going than anything else. US 5-year yields are down another 16.6 (!) basis points today in a continued swan
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Watch out for the China PMIs on the weekend

28 Feb 2020
If you can believe them... that is
On Saturday China will release the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs. The consensus is the manufacturing number is a drop to 45.0 from 50.0 in January.
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A 50 basis point cut from the Fed is now 70% priced in for the March 18 meeting

28 Feb 2020
A single cut is totally priced in
The Fed funds futures market continues to imply that a cut is fully priced in but now it's a question of 25 basis points or 50 bps.
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Trump admin weighing pushing for tax cut to address virus fallout - WaPo

28 Feb 2020
Report in the Washington Post
Any cuts would have to get through the House and that's a tall -- if not impossible -- order unless both sides are willing to do some major horse trading. It's all politics.
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